Forecast summary

Air transport demand forecast: RPK growth rate by region

World passenger traffic is expected to maintain 4.5% annual growth over the next two decades. Despite external shocks to the system, air travel has proven to be resilient to ruptures, always keeping its historical trend in the long term.

By 2036, the Middle East and Asia Pacific will be the fastest growing markets, with an annual RPK growth rate of around 6.0%, followed by Latin America with 5.2%, Africa with 4.9%, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with 3.6%, Europe also with 3.6% and North America with 2.7%.

Worldwide Air Transport Demand Growth

Source: Embraer

Air transport demand forecast, cont.

World air transport demand will increase 2.5 times by 2036, reaching 16 trillion RPKs for all commercial aircraft segments.

Asia Pacific will be the largest market, accounting for 37% of world RPKs. Combine, Europe and North America will generate 36% of total air transport demand.

70–90 seat jet
70–130+ seat jet
90–130+ seat jet

The 70-130 seat jet segment (2017-2036 projected deliveries)

Embraer foresees world demand for 6,400 new jets in the 70 to 130-seat segment over the next 20 years — 2,280 units in the 70 to 90-seat segment and 4,120 units in the 90 to 130-seat segment — representing a total market value of US$ 300 billion.

The 70 to 130-seat jet world fleet-in-service will increase from 2,700 aircraft in 2016 to 6,710 by 2036, the fastest growing segment among all aircraft categories. Replacement of ageing aircraft will represent 37% of new deliveries and 63% will represent market growth.

The regional jet market has grown to be a strong sector based on a combination of higher loads and greater profitability.

The turboprop segment (2017-2036 projected deliveries)

Short-haul operation will drive a worldwide demand for 2,050 turboprops with a capacity of 70 seats or more by 2036. Of these, 56% will support market growth and the remaining 44% will replace ageing aircraft.

The narrow-body segment (2017-2036 projected deliveries)

By 2036, 21,700 narrow-body aircraft will be delivered worldwide, 50% of which will replace ageing aircraft. Jets at the top end of the capacity spectrum will continue to dominate future demand, with an increasing focus on the largest aircraft.

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