Methodology

Our Process

The model considers network traffic of intra- and inter-regional traffic flow interactions by airline domicile. The output is obtained by an analytical choice of equations and variables that better fit the historical traffic evolution for each flow.

Traffic Forecasting

Our traffic forecasting model has several inputs, including:

  • Historical traffic data
  • GDP evolution
  • Trade
  • Tourism
  • Fuel Price
  • Population Dynamics
  • Airline Competition
  • Traffic of other transport modes
  • Proxy variables, including occurrence of terrorist attacks, war, disease and airline bankruptcies.

Forecasting New Deliveries

Examining each regional network allows Embraer to accurately forecast how the future load factors, and consequently future capacity, will be distributed for different seat segments.
Embraer examines its own models to better understand previous and future aircraft utilization, retirement age, pre-owned aircraft flow and aircraft leasing dynamics.

All of these subjects cover macro drivers (e.g. fuel price, entry into service of new generation aircraft, or airline business model evolution) to derive the future required fleet and hence the projected new deliveries.

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